AFGHANISTAN

In 2025, Afghanistan continues to face a fragile security situation, characterized by a semblance of stability imposed by the Taliban, yet undermined by persistent threats and regional tensions. While the level of open conflict has decreased since 2021, the country remains plagued by terrorism, endemic insecurity, recurring humanitarian crises, and significant socioeconomic pressure on the population. The main destabilizing factors stem from the jihadist threat posed by ISIS in Khorasan (ISKP) and the deterioration of relations with Pakistan, which has resulted in cross-border strikes and rising military tensions.

ISIS in Khorasan remains the primary domestic terrorist threat. The group pursues a strategy of targeted attacks against the Taliban, religious minorities (particularly Shia), and foreign diplomatic missions. Although under heavy security pressure, ISKP retains a significant capacity to cause harm, relying on clandestine cells, high-profile attacks (including internationally), and active propaganda. This threat limits the Taliban’s ability to claim full security control over the territory and constitutes a major factor in the Afghan regime’s international isolation.

Relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan deteriorated sharply in 2025 due to the continued activity of armed groups hostile to Islamabad operating from Afghan territory, notably the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). In response, Pakistan carried out several targeted strikes in Afghanistan’s border provinces, officially presented as acts of self-defense. These operations were denounced by the Taliban authorities as violations of sovereignty and contributed to a limited but recurring verbal and military escalation, exacerbating instability in the border areas.

Domestically, the security situation is unfolding against a backdrop of a prolonged economic crisis, strict social restrictions (targeting women in particular), and a weakening of the Taliban government’s administrative capacity. Border populations, particularly in the east of the country, are directly bearing the combined effects of counterterrorism operations, cross-border strikes, and the absence of regional coordination mechanisms. At the regional level, Afghanistan remains a space of indirect rivalries, where Pakistani security concerns, fears of jihadist spillover, and the interests of neighboring powers intersect. The lack of international recognition of the Taliban regime limits any structured cooperation and contributes to the persistence of a volatile security environment, characterized by the risk of sporadic escalation rather than open conflict.