ARMENIA

In 2025, Armenia continues its strategic reorientation toward the West, following the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023, which is now entirely under Azerbaijani control. This military defeat, experienced as a national trauma, has permanently weakened the government of Nikol Pashinyan, who remains in office but is challenged by a segment of the population for his lack of response during the Azerbaijani offensive and his political initiatives, which are viewed as erratic and reckless.

Faced with the neutrality of Russia, which had historically been the guarantor of Armenian security,during the Karabakh war, Yerevan intensified its cooperation with the European Union, France, and the United States. In 2024, Armenia’s official accession to the International Criminal Court—which targets Vladimir Putin—marked a clear break with Moscow. In response, Russia sharply reduced its military and diplomatic cooperation with Armenia, further isolating the country in a region dominated by hostile powers.

France has supplied defense equipment to Armenia (particularly for its surface-to-air defense), but this aid remains insufficient in the face of Azerbaijan’s military superiority, which is strongly backed by Turkey.

On the ground, despite the absence of open warfare, tensions remain very high along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. Regular skirmishes took place throughout 2024 and into early 2025, particularly in the Syunik and Tavush regions. Azerbaijan continues to demand the creation of a land corridor to Nakhchivan, directly threatening Armenian sovereignty over its southern territory.

Within the country, the political situation remains volatile. Opposition protests continue in Yerevan, sometimes met with violent repression. Criticism is directed at the government’s handling of security, but also at growing economic difficulties: inflation, unemployment, and capital flight are causing concern among a population already traumatized.

Furthermore, the war has also led to a significant displacement of people (100,000 refugees) from Nagorno-Karabakh who have fled to the interior of the country. This displacement has increased pressure on social resources and reduced many of these new arrivals to poverty. Having lost everything, they are dependent on humanitarian aid and find themselves in a highly vulnerable situation now that subsidies from the Armenian government have been drastically reduced. Armenia is a predominantly agricultural country (65% of jobs are in rural areas, and agriculture accounted for 15% of GDP in 2017), but it is not in a position to easily absorb such a large number of refugees. Disparities in wealth and the precarious situation of these individuals are likely to worsen, which could lead to social unrest.

Armenia remains, however, a generally safe country for foreigners, including in the capital. Travel to areas bordering Azerbaijan is strongly discouraged, however, due to the real risk of gunfire or kidnapping. The climate of regional tension and the lack of external security guarantees require close monitoring and heightened precautions for any stay in the country.