BELARUS

In 2025, Belarus remains an authoritarian state firmly controlled by Alexander Lukashenko, who has been in power since 1994. Since the crackdown on the post-election protest movement in 2020, the country has entered a phase of near-total political lockdown. Independent civil society has been dismantled, the press muzzled, and thousands of opponents still live in exile, mainly in Lithuania and Poland.

Lukashenko, marginalized on the international stage, has strengthened his strategic alliance with Moscow, becoming a pivotal player in Russia’s military apparatus. Belarus has hosted Russian troops, communications infrastructure, and, since 2023, Russian tactical nuclear weapons on its soil. Minsk is not officially participating in the war in Ukraine, but it allows its territory to be used for the transit of Russian troops and military equipment.

The country’s southern border, which separates it from Ukraine, remains extremely sensitive. Border incidents, Russian troop movements, and overflights are frequent there. This area should therefore be strictly avoided, as should the border crossings with Poland and Lithuania, where tensions are also high due to migration pressures orchestrated by the Belarusian regime.

The country’s militarization has intensified, particularly with the partial redeployment of the Wagner Group in 2023–2024, although its presence appears more symbolic than operational since the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin. The Belarusian army remains weak in terms of autonomous capability, but it is integrated into the Russian-Belarusian regional defense system.

Widespread surveillance of the population has intensified further: wiretapping, facial recognition, arbitrary arrests, and disinformation campaigns. Foreign nationals are particularly vulnerable to this type of surveillance. It is strongly advised against discussing political topics, photographing sensitive facilities, or using social media in a critical manner while in the country.

In terms of common crime, Belarus remains a relatively safe country. However, the main risk is political and institutional. Cases of arbitrary detention, particularly of journalists, NGO workers, or Western travelers suspected of “espionage,” have been reported through 2024.

Travel within the country therefore requires extreme caution. Any visit by a foreign national must be carefully planned in coordination with the relevant consular authorities, and sensitive border areas or public gatherings must be strictly avoided.