MOZAMBIQUE

In 2025, Mozambique is confronted with a persistent armed conflict in its northern region, growing social tensions, and structural vulnerabilities linked to poverty, corruption, and natural disasters.

The primary flashpoint of instability is located in the northern province of Cabo Delgado, where the jihadist group Al-Shabab (unaffiliated with the group in Somalia) has been leading a deadly insurrection since 2017. Despite military support from SADC (Southern African Development Community), Rwanda, and private forces, attacks continue into 2024–2025 : ambushes, raids against villages, kidnappings, and beheadings. Several NGOs and economic facilities (particularly those linked to natural gas) have been targeted.

The town of Palma and the surrounding areas of Mocímboa da Praia, formerly held by the insurgents, remain under high surveillance. TotalEnergies' giant gas project remains suspended, despite discussions regarding a gradual restart conditional on an improved security framework.

On the political front, President Filipe Nyusi is completing his term amid strong intra-party tensions, notably within FRELIMO, which has dominated the country since independence. Accusations of misappropriation of public funds and tensions surrounding the preparation for the 2025 presidential election are reviving political divisions. The opposition (RENAMO) remains marginalized but denounces a lack of transparency in governance. Social movements are violently suppressed by law enforcement gunfire, reflecting public discontent with the political situation, with the population notably accusing Filipe Nyusi of rigging the elections.

The center of the country (Sofala and Manica provinces) experienced a resurgence of instability in 2024 linked to residual armed groups from former RENAMO factions dissatisfied with the implementation of the 2019 peace agreement, with isolated incidents reported on roadways.

Urban crime is increasing in Maputo, Beira, and Nampula, involving theft, burglaries, and sometimes violent armed assaults, including against expatriates, while corruption within the security forces undermines their effectiveness.

Mozambique is also highly vulnerable to natural disasters such as cyclones, floods, and droughts. In 2024, Cyclone Gamane caused severe damage in Zambezia province, exacerbating food insecurity and population displacements.

For travelers, travel to the north of the country (Cabo Delgado) is formally discouraged due to the risk of kidnapping or armed attack. Heightened vigilance is required in urban centers, and robust logistical conditions are necessary in remote regions.