BELARUS

In 2025, Belarus remains an authoritarian state tightly controlled by Alexander Lukashenko, who has ruled since 1994. Following the brutal crackdown on the post-election protest movement in 2020, the country entered a period of near-total political lock-down. Independent civil society has been dismantled, the press silenced, and thousands of dissidents remain in exile, mainly in Lithuania and Poland.

Lukashenko, increasingly isolated on the international stage, has deepened his strategic alliance with Moscow, becoming a key actor in the Russian military framework. Belarus hosts Russian troops, communication infrastructures, and, since 2023, Russian tactical nuclear weapons. While not officially participating in the war in Ukraine, Belarus allows Russian forces to transit through its territory.
The southern border with Ukraine remains highly sensitive. Border incidents, Russian troop movements, and aerial overflights are frequent. This area, along with border crossings with Poland and Lithuania—where migration pressure is orchestrated by Minsk—should be strictly avoided.

The militarisation of Belarus has intensified, particularly following the partial redeployment of Wagner Group units in 2023–2024, although their presence now appears more symbolic than operational following the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin. The Belarusian military remains weak independently but is integrated into the Russian-Belarusian regional defence framework.

Surveillance of the population has tightened further: phone tapping, facial recognition, arbitrary arrests, and disinformation campaigns are widespread. Foreign nationals are especially vulnerable to surveillance. Discussing politics, photographing sensitive sites, or using social media critically while in Belarus is strongly discouraged.

In terms of conventional crime, Belarus remains relatively safe. However, the primary risks are political and institutional. Cases of arbitrary detention, including of journalists, NGO workers, and Western travellers suspected of “espionage,” were reported as recently as 2024.

Travel in Belarus requires extreme caution. Any foreign presence should be thoroughly planned with consular coordination, avoiding all sensitive border areas and public gatherings.