ETHIOPIA

In 2025, Ethiopia remains deeply weakened by internal conflicts, interethnic tensions, and the lingering effects of the Tigray war, officially ended but with ongoing humanitarian, political and security consequences.

Since the Pretoria peace agreement signed in November 2022 between the federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), fighting has subsided in Tigray. However, implementation of the agreement has been slow and partial. Administrative reintegration, infrastructure reconstruction and return of displaced persons are limited. A major humanitarian crisis persists, with urgent needs for water, food and medical care.

In other regions, conflicts have worsened in 2024 and early 2025.

In Amhara, tensions between Amhara militias (Fano) and the federal army escalated into open conflict. Despite a state of emergency declared in 2023, clashes, mass arrests and extrajudicial killings continue. The region is heavily militarised and access is tightly controlled.

In Oromia, recurring clashes pit state forces against the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), labelled a terrorist group by Addis Ababa. The violence, highly lethal, affects civilians and feeds chronic instability in Ethiopia’s most populous region.

At the Sudan and Eritrea borders, territorial tensions persist, especially in the contested al-Fashaga area. Eritrea maintains a hostile military posture along the northern frontier.

In Addis Ababa, the capital remains under government control, but security is tight around institutions, embassies and key districts. Communal tensions occasionally erupt.

The overall humanitarian situation is alarming: millions are internally displaced, and food insecurity is worsening in several regions. Humanitarian access is hindered by conflict, administrative restrictions and distrust of foreign NGOs.

Politically, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed remains in power, but his authority is eroding amid internal fractures and growing public criticism. Hopes for national reconciliation following his 2019 Nobel Peace Prize have largely faded.

Security conditions are severely degraded across much of the country, with high risks of kidnapping, ethnic violence, ambushes and blockades. Conflict zones are formally advised against, as are road journeys outside the capital.