TAJIKISTAN

Tajikistan remains in a delicate geopolitical position in 2025, caught between regional disputes, concerns about Afghan instability, and internal security ambitions.

Since the deadly clashes in 2022 (300 killed, several thousand injured), the border conflict with Kyrgyzstan over the Isfara River and the Golovnaya water distribution point remains unresolved. In 2024, several minor armed incidents were reported in the militarised Ferghana Valley. Despite renewed dialogue between Dushanbe and Bishkek, the border remains tense, with risks of renewed hostilities.

The Taliban’s takeover of Kabul continues to alarm the government of Emomali Rahmon, who has been in power since 1992. Strongly opposed to the Taliban, the Tajik regime fears Islamist contagion in its conservative southern regions and the radicalisation of its youth. In 2024, several arrests of Islamist preachers and students returning from foreign madrasas were reported.

Tajikistan has strengthened security cooperation with China, seen as a reliable ally against Afghan risks, while partly sidelining its traditional alliance with Russia, now focused on the war in Ukraine.

The country is officially stable but ruled authoritatively by President Rahmon and his clan. Political opposition is virtually non-existent, the media are censored, and civil liberties are severely restricted. Repression against the Ismaili-majority autonomous region of Gorno-Badakhshan continues, with mass arrests following the 2022 unrest.

The country is relatively safe in major cities and central regions (Dushanbe, Khujand).
However, southern border areas (with Afghanistan) and parts of Gorno-Badakhshan are strongly discouraged due to drug trafficking, smuggling, cross-border insecurity, and ethnic tensions.
The army and security forces frequently carry out arbitrary checks, especially targeting foreigners.

Avoid all travel near the Kyrgyz and Afghan borders.
In Dushanbe, standard vigilance is sufficient, though some areas require travel declarations to authorities.
Be aware of strict religious restrictions, particularly regarding Islamic practices not sanctioned by the state.