SOMALIA

Mired in civil war since the 1990s, in 2025 Somalia remains in a critical security and humanitarian crisis, marked by the absence of a fully functioning state, the territorial grip of armed Islamist groups, and a persistent food crisis.

The country is still divided among: the federal government in Mogadishu, supported by the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS, successor to AMISOM); the jihadist group Al-Shabaab, which controls much of the central-south; clan-based militias, often in conflict with each other or the central government; and two semi-autonomous northern entities: Puntland, which claims broad autonomy, and Somaliland, which has claimed de facto independence since 1991.

In 2024, Al-Shabaab demonstrated its resilience and disruptive capacity. The group, linked to Al-Qaeda, maintains authority in several regions, draws revenue from charcoal, timber, and smuggling, and regularly launches attacks:

Against Somali security forces,
Against African military bases (notably Ethiopian and Ugandan),
Against hotels, institutions, and public gatherings in Mogadishu or Beledweyne.
Several major attacks were recorded in 2024, using car bombs and improvised explosives, causing dozens of civilian deaths.

The Somali state's dysfunction sustains a dramatic humanitarian crisis:
Nearly 6 million people face food insecurity.
There are over 2.5 million internally displaced persons.
Entire regions face famine, worsened by climate disruption, drought, and obstruction of humanitarian aid by armed groups.
The regional context exacerbates the situation: conflict in Sudan, tensions in Tigray and Darfur, and refugee flows across borders with Ethiopia and Kenya.

The entire Somali territory is classified as extremely high-risk. Travel is strictly discouraged, except for armed humanitarian missions.
Terrorist attacks occur almost weekly.
Kidnapping risks are high, including in Mogadishu.
Maritime risk persists: piracy in the Gulf of Aden, though structurally declining, remains a concern.
Cross-border terrorism (towards Kenya, Ethiopia) may intensify if Al-Shabaab expands operations.

Any mission in Somalia requires thorough assessment, enhanced security measures, and close coordination with local and international partners.